1- Estimate the extent of patient-to-patient transmission and other quantities using admission prevalence and cross-sectional point-prevalence data for carriage of organisms among healthcare facility in-patients. Parameter estimated: Patient-to-patient transmission rate, facility reproduction number, rate of progression to infection, intervention effects if applicable. Estimates derived via solving differential equations at equilibrium and facility reproduction number equations. 2-Provides analytic framework for investigating patient-focused interventions to prevent transmission in high-risk healthcare facilities and their direct and population-level health impacts and threshold effects. Scenarios(s) Modeled: Intervention scenarios for surveillance and isolation (contact precautions), decolonization drugs, infection treatment, horizontal transmission reduction, and length of stay reduction.
Additional Resource Information:
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1-Toth D, Khader K, Beams A, Samore M (2019). Model-based Assessment of the Effect of Contact Precautions Applied to Surveillance-detected Carriers of Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in Long-term Acute Care Hospitals, Clinical Infectious Diseases 69(Supplement_3), S206–S213. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciz557. 2-Toth D, Samore M, Nelson R (2021), Economic Evaluations of New Antibiotics: The High Potential Value of Reducing Healthcare Transmission Through Decolonization, Clinical Infectious Diseases 72(Supplement_1), S34–S41. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1590. 3-Transmission thresholds for the spread of infections in healthcare facilities. Damon J.A. Toth, Karim Khader, Christopher Mitchell, Matthew H. Samore medRxiv 2025.02.21.25322698; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.21.25322698
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- Epidemic Model – Scenario Modeling & Parameter estimation
Code: https://github.com/EpiForeSITE/facilityepimath R package: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=facilityepimath
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