We’ve used Mortality Mapping (mMAP), an existing epidemiologic and statistical analysis approach by Lu et al. [1,2] to estimate the cumulative incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 in Veterans in the United States. mMAP is a time series deconvolution method which infers the true COVID-19 case counts from reported COVID-19 deaths. It uses symptom onset to death distribution, smoothed time series of reported COVID-19 deaths, and symptomatic case fatality rate (sCFR) to estimate the distribution of symptomatic COVID-19 cases. We focus on the adjusted version of the mMAP approach presented by Lu et al., which tries to account for the unreported COVID-19 deaths. While Lu uses excess influenza and pneumonia deaths to account for unreported COVID-19 deaths, we have extended their approach by using excess all-cause deaths.
Additional Resource Information:
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Under the following existing papers from others: 1-https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070821v3.full.pdf , 2-https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008994
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- Epidemic Model – Forecasting
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