Provides estimates for individual-level transmission distribution (mean and variance) based on data from prior isolated outbreak clusters. Useful for quantifying the risk of superspreading events and the risk that future outbreaks will exceed a given threshold.Parameter estimated: Basic reproduction number; dispersion parameter quantifying variance in transmission; extensions estimate changes in reproduction number by generation, e.g. post-control reproduction number. Estimated via maximum likelihood using final size distribution equations for branching process models.
Additional Resource Information:
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1-Toth D, Gundlapalli A, Khader K, Pettey W, Rubin M, Adler F, Samore M (2015). Estimates of outbreak risk from new introductions of Ebola with immediate and delayed transmission control. Emerg Infect Dis, 21(8), 1402-1408. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2108.150170. 2-Toth D, Tanner W, Khader K, Gundlapalli A (2016). Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula. Epidemics, 16, 27-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002.
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- Epidemic Model-Scenario Modeling & Parameter estimation
Code: https://github.com/EpiForeSITE/branchingprocess Rpackage: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=branchingprocess
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