Branching process outbreak simulation and parameter estimation from outbreak cluster data
Provides estimates for individual-level transmission distribution (mean and variance) based on data from prior isolated outbreak clusters. Useful for quantifying the risk of superspreading events and the risk that future outbreaks will exceed a given threshold.Parameter estimated: Basic reproduction number; dispersion parameter quantifying variance in transmission; extensions estimate changes in reproduction number by generation, e.g.…
Dose-response estimators for infection risk
Estimate infection probability from a given dose of exposure using data sets from experimental dose-quantified exposures of humans or animals; model-based results used to perform quantitative risk assessment for potential human exposure scenarios. Parameter estimated: Per-unit-dose infection probability and associated additional parameters for more complicated dose-response models, including those that quantify dose-dependent latent/incubation period; can…
Ebola